The National Hurricane Center is forecasting the newly-formed Hurricane Milton will intensify to a major Category 4 hurricane as it approaches the coast. With the storm system tracking right through Central Florida, Walt Disney World is preparing in a way that the parks & resorts never did for Helene last month. This offers an update on the system’s status, impacts around Orlando, likelihood of the theme parks closing, and more.
Officially, it’s currently business as usual at Walt Disney World. The company has not announced any closures, cancellations, or substantive operational impacts due to Hurricane Milton. If you’re simply wondering what will be closing or changing at the resorts, water parks, restaurants, etc., the answer is nothing. So far.
Walt Disney World has issued its first update on Hurricane Milton, of the no-news variety: “Walt Disney World Resort is currently operating under normal conditions. We are closely monitoring the path of the projected storm as we continue to prioritize the safety of our Guests and Cast Members.”
This isn’t a huge surprise. With the bulk of the impact on Central Florida to be felt throughout Wednesday, it’s premature for any announcements about Walt Disney World operations. We’d expect that to happen on Monday afternoon or early Tuesday, and only if it becomes clear that Milton will pose an actual threat–beyond just wet weather and wind–to Walt Disney World. With that said, quiet changes are already starting to be made.
For starters, Walt Disney World has officially enacted its more lenient hurricane cancellation and modification policy. This had been informally instituted over the weekend on a case-by-case basis, but now it’s available to all guests wanting to cancel their vacations through at least October 12, 2024. Here’s the official announcement that’s been shared with travel agents:
Disney Resort and Room-Only Cancellation Policy for Reservations Booked Directly with Disney Destinations, LLC or The Walt Disney Travel Company:
- Due to potential weather impacts to guest travel plans, change and cancellation fees imposed by Disney will be waived for check-in dates of Sunday, 10/6 – Saturday, 10/12.
- Most room-only and vacation packages can be modified, or cancelled online, including changes to travel dates, without fees. Packages including air transportation or other services provided by third parties, or those with travel protection, cannot be modified or cancelled online. For Guests with these reservations, please call us for assistance.
Although not officially part of this announcement, it’s likely that guests currently staying at Walt Disney World resort hotels whose travel plans are impacted by Hurricane Milton may receive a discounted rate to extend their stay, if needed, by visiting the front desk. It’s worth noting that these policies were never enacted for Hurricane Helene. It’s our understanding that they weren’t even informally extended as a guest courtesy (they definitely weren’t officially implemented).
This is likely because Walt Disney World has already started blocking out rooms to increase inventory for guests impacted by Hurricane Milton. When attempting to book hotel rooms, the Walt Disney World website is showing no availability for any searches that include October 9-10. Availability is fairly wide open both before and after, but if you include either (or both) of those dates in your search, there’s magically nothing.
We do not intend upon booking an on-site hotel at Walt Disney World during a major hurricane. Been there, done that. This is simply something we always check, as it’s a common first-step that Walt Disney World takes in order to have operational flexibility to extend stays for guests who are stranded (also been there, done that) or who are evacuating from the coasts.
Again, this is not something we saw with Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago. But Walt Disney World was never in the projected path to the extent it is with Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to make landfall around Tampa and is tracking directly through Walt Disney World and Orlando.
Similarly, Disney Park Pass theme park reservations have been blocked out for Wednesday, October 9, 2024. There’s now no availability at all four Walt Disney World theme parks–the calendar is greyed out for both Annual Passholders and regular ticket holders who are required to make reservations.
We can assure you that Wednesday suddenly isn’t super popular–the busier dates around fall break aren’t even grey, and we can’t remember the last dates that organically ran out of all reservations. This is Walt Disney World pulling park reservations as an ordinary part of its hurricane prep. Yet again, not something that happened for Helene, but Walt Disney World is already taking steps that go beyond what they did for that system.
With that said, Walt Disney World is still selling regular reservation-less tickets for October 9-10. Same goes for Lightning Lane Multi-Pass reservations, other add-ons and reservations that we’re assuming will be cancelled. So what we’re seeing so far consists of half measures. Understandably so, as theme park reservations can always be resumed later if the parks opt against closing (or not–limiting reservations also allows for reduced staffing even if the parks are operating).
To that point, it is our expectation that Walt Disney World will have closures as a result of Hurricane Milton.
We wouldn’t be surprised to see a relocation of guests from Fort Wilderness and the cancellation of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party on October 8 and 10, 2024. Other nighttime spectaculars may also be cancelled, Typhoon Lagoon will likely close, and various tours and other things will likely be cancelled.
As for the core four theme parks, if the meteorologists are correct and nothing about the tracking changes for Hurricane Milton, you can probably expect to see an early closure on Tuesday night. Even this isn’t a sure thing as the storm’s arrival is now later, so Tuesday may be business as usual.
Following that, a full-day closure for Walt Disney World’s theme parks on Wednesday seems increasingly likely. Also within the realm of possibility depending upon the extent of the storm’s impact, damage, and how quickly it passes through is a delayed opening, or even another full-day closure, on Thursday.
Please keep in mind that this is what we’re expecting based on the current forecast and past precedent. It’s not official or even rumor. Again, Walt Disney World has not issued any closures or warnings. Aside from the aforementioned wet and windy weather, the operational impact on Walt Disney World is still unknown.
As of the latest update at 8 pm Eastern on October 6, 2024 from the National Hurricane Center, here are the key messages for Hurricane Milton…
Hurricane Milton has sustained winds of 85 mph and is moving east at 7 mph; the system is located about 780 miles west-southwest of Tampa and 250 miles west-northwest of Progresso, Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend out 25 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out 80 miles from its center.
The system’s path has shifted more south prompting a hurricane watch from Celestun to Cabo Catoche, Mexico and tropical storm warning from Celestun to Cancun. However, the NHC cautions against focusing on the exact track, as that could continue to shift before the system’s mid-week landfall in Florida.
Milton is rapidly intensifying, which is forecast to continue while the small hurricane remains within light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is “bullish” according to NHC, with almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus model and still could be too low.
Later on, vertical wind shear is forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, Milton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.
While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of Hurricane Milton’s greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday. Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.
Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida through Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to Milton expected on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 51 of Florida’s 67 counties, up from 35. The state of emergency includes all Central Florida counties, including Osceola or Orange, which Walt Disney World calls home. (Both were in the original group of 35, so this isn’t a new development.)
Governor DeSantis delivered press conferences from the State Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee on Sunday morning and evening. He implored Floridians to prepare, and offered reminders and reassurances that there’s still time, as the storm isn’t arriving in the next couple of days, but mid-week. He strongly encouraged Floridians to put their hurricane preparedness plans into place and be sure people have enough water and nonperishable food to last as long as the power may be out.
“You still have time to do what you need to do, but this could potentially be a major hurricane. No matter what happens, it is going to have impacts to the state of Florida,” DeSantis cautioned. He indicated there’s still a lot of uncertainty as to where Hurricane Milton will make landfall in Florida, but warned of potential deadly storm surge and damaging winds, urging people to not wait until the last minute to prepare.
He said to expect both voluntary and mandatory evacuations, especially on the barrier islands, which just saw deadly storm surge because of Hurricane Helene. “Take this storm very seriously,” DeSantis added, because it’s going to be a major and powerful hurricane that will impact Florida.
According to the social media pages of several Central Florida cities and the Florida Division of Emergency Management, sandbag distribution centers are going to start opening in the coming days to allow residents to prepare for potential Milton impacts. Florida state and local government agencies are already taking Milton very seriously.
Obviously, things could change between now and mid-week, but this system looks like it could be a scary one for the west coast of the state. In watching the local weather forecasts, we’ve seen two different meteorologists bring up the Tarpon Springs Hurricane of 1921, which was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane to hit the Tampa Bay area since 1848.
If you’re looking for one positive tidbit in all of this, it’s that most of the models are showing a slight shift to the south in Hurricane Milton’s tracking as of the Sunday updates. As usual, there’s a good amount of spread in the models, but the system is pretty consistently going right through Central Florida. The south shift mostly means Milton wouldn’t make landfall in Tampa.
We’re not attempting to be alarmists, just sharing what we’re seeing and hearing. The tone of Central Florida weather forecasters suggests that Hurricane Milton could be a serious storm, with consequential wind, surge and flood concerns. It’s possible they’re erring on the side of caution or are overly-concerned due to how hard-hit portions of the Carolinas were by Helene, but these warnings already sound more urgent than they did for that system.
Anyone who has experienced storm season in Florida knows these forecasts can–and usually do–change. In the past few years, hurricanes originally forecast to miss Florida entirely have swerved towards the state and others with a high probability of wreaking havoc have weakened at the last minute.
It’s always better to err on the side of caution and be prepared rather than not taking a major storm system seriously. Regardless of how models evolve, Hurricane Milton will bring heavier than normal precipitation and wind to Central Florida, meaning that–at best–it’s going to an even rainier week at Walt Disney World.
You’ll definitely want to keep an eye on this system if you’re currently planning to be in the parks this coming week. At minimum, come prepared for heavy rain, as Walt Disney World is now in the heart of hurricane season!
We’ll keep you posted with updates from the National Hurricane Center and operational updates from Walt Disney World if/when one is released. If you’re planning a visit, you can also consult our Tips for Hurricane & Storm Season at Walt Disney World for generalized advice on packing, avoiding the worst of the wet weather, and even riding out a hurricane. We hope it won’t come to that with Milton!
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Are you concerned that Hurricane Milton will impact Walt Disney World? Are you currently in Central Florida? Have you visited during past tropical storms or hurricanes? Any additional info, thoughts, or first-hand experiences to share about riding out a hurricane at Walt Disney World? Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
