Hurricane Milton is “explosively” intensifying according to the NHC, hitting Category 5 status with 175 mph winds and causing closures & cancellations in Central Florida. The system is currently tracking right through Orlando, and will likely result in Walt Disney World closing for at least one full day.
We’ve been hearing from many readers who either have trips planned this week for fall break or who are already at Walt Disney World. Many are wondering whether they should reschedule, cancel, cut short their trips, or otherwise change their plans. This post is aimed at helping make that decision (assuming it’s not made for you by airport closures), as we share our past experiences as tourists visiting Walt Disney World and locals living in Central Florida during previous hurricanes and tropical storms.
We’ve already shared updates on the system as Hurricane Milton continues to strengthen and shifts towards Central Florida and Walt Disney World. Since then, Milton has further intensified into a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected and the system is expected to weaken, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center.
In its latest update, the NHC stated that Hurricane Milton had sustained winds of 175 mph, which is an extremely powerful Category 5 hurricane, the highest level in its wind scale. Sitting amid the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and low wind shear, it was located 700 miles southwest of Tampa and 105 miles west-northwest of Progresso, Mexico moving east at 9 mph
The National Hurricane Center updates its Hurricane Milton forecast regularly, at which point it shifts the cone of uncertainty representing the range of possibilities for the storm’s center that extends up to five days into the future. The cone of uncertainty predicts the hurricane’s path, but even outside of the cone, ferocious winds, storm surge, heavy rains, and other intense weather can be felt throughout the Florida Peninsula as a result of Hurricane Milton.
If you’re currently in Florida or planning on arriving this week, we’d strongly recommend reviewing those updates and closely monitoring future ones. Moreover, you should be heeding evacuation orders and paying close attention to what Governor DeSantis and local leaders are advising. As the governor has said repeatedly, this is going to be a strong storm that needs to be taken very seriously.
As for whether you should cancel or reschedule your Walt Disney World trip, that’s a personal question and the answer largely depends upon your arrival and departure dates, expectations, and myriad other factors that are unique to your specific trip.
Rather than being presumptuous and making broad and sweeping statements, we’ll offer thoughts from our experience being stranded at Walt Disney World during Hurricane Irma several years ago as out-of-state tourists, as well as during other hurricanes and tropical storms as locals a few years ago. From that, you can make your own decisions.
Hurricane Irma caused Walt Disney World to be closed for two full days and resulted in minor damage around the resort. We got stuck in Walt Disney World after our Disney Cruise Line sailing was canceled. This was done by DCL relatively last minute, and rather than being proactive and cancelling the trip ourselves, we took a wait and see approach.
That was a mistake, and one we immediately regretted. By that point, we were unable to rebook our flight due to the mass exodus of people trying to leave Florida. We spent countless hours on the phone with Delta, and checked constantly as flights were added and modified, but kept coming up empty.
If you’re already at Walt Disney World, you’re likely in similar circumstances. As of October 7, Disney hasn’t announced anything–it’s business as usual for Hurricane Milton. That will change. Obviously, we don’t have any inside info, but it’s an inevitability that there will be operational impacts, and probably relatively major ones. We’re expecting all 4 theme parks to be closed for at least a full day.
It’s honestly a little frustrating that Walt Disney World is still taking a ‘wait and see’ approach with Milton, since the clear consensus is it’s going right through Central Florida. Unlike other systems that have had a lot of variability in the different models, there’s not as much range for Milton. Announcing a closure now could make this decision a lot easier for many tourists.
Tampa already announced its airport is closing on Tuesday in advance of Hurricane Milton, and Orlando International Airport is following suit on Wednesday with the suspension of commercial flights (the airport isn’t closing, but it’s a distinction without a difference for regular tourists).
As a result, there’s undoubtedly already been a rush on rebookings as locals and travelers scramble to get on the last flights out of Florida. It might already be too late for you to choose to leave–but you should at least try. This is a big part of the calculus when deciding whether (and when) to change or reschedule your plans. You don’t want the decision taken out of your hands by the airport or airlines; at that point, you’re at the mercy of the schedule and seat availability.
This applies both to arrivals and departures, both of which are going to have a backlog due to cancelled flights on (at least) Wednesday, October 9, 2024. If at all possible, you should be proactive with rescheduling your flights at times you expect operations to normalize–rather than being overly optimistic, having your flight cancelled, and moving to the back of the line on rebookings (so to speak).
Point being, we were stuck at Walt Disney World during Hurricane Irma. Instead of going home, on a cruise, or to the parks, we spent a few nights “getting to know” the rooms at Disney’s BoardWalk Inn. We both wished we would have proactively cut short our trip and headed home.
If you’re on the fence about whether to cancel or reschedule a Walt Disney World vacation right now, we’d encourage you to read our more detailed Our Hurricane Irma Experience at Walt Disney World, which covers what we did to prepare for the storm, how Walt Disney World’s “ride out” Cast Members handled operations, and much more.
Despite losing around 3 days of park time (and that’s not counting the hours spent wandering around EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios essentially doing nothing while on hold with Delta), our experience with Hurricane Irma turned out fine. Cast Members were great, as always. We felt safe throughout our stay, and Disney went above and beyond to make the most of the situation via entertainment and activities.
With that said, it was still very much a “lemonade out of lemons” situation. Whenever someone talks up how great of a job Disney did handling hurricanes (and they really do!), the question travelers on the fence about canceling should ask is: “would you have booked that experience in the first place, paying thousands or tens of thousands of dollars for it?” Of course not.
Cast Members do a great job given the circumstances, with a strong emphasis on given the circumstances. Being stuck in the hotel doing rainy day activities is nothing like spending time in the parks. Coloring books have got nothing on Cosmic Rewind!
When it came to Irma, the hurricane itself didn’t cause much damage beyond some downed trees, which meant everything was back up and running quickly. Things could’ve gone worse; the parks could’ve been closed longer or attractions could’ve gone down, etc. Moreover, MCO could’ve stayed closed longer, and we could’ve had more difficulty booking a return flight home.
Things could’ve just as easily been far worse for us, and could still be worse for Hurricane Milton. We’ve been watching the Central Florida local news and Fox Weather pretty much non-stop since Sunday, and Milton sounds fairly unprecedented. As we’ve shared elsewhere, we’ve seen meteorologists bring up the Tarpon Springs Hurricane of 1921, which was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane to hit the Tampa Bay area since 1848.
Unfortunately, that’s something truly unknowable in advance. Walt Disney World is located in Central Florida and is less likely to see the same levels of devastation as Tampa, even if the system continues tracking right through Walt Disney World. Milton is expected to weaken from its current status–it won’t make landfall as a Category 5 storm, and will weaken further before arriving in Central Florida. But that doesn’t rule out catastrophic damage beyond the coast–just look at the areas of North Carolina that are hundreds of miles inland and still recovering from Helene.
One thing we will stress here is that, contrary to popular reassurances, Walt Disney World is not the safest place to be during a hurricane. Wherever you live–assuming it’s where the hurricane isn’t–is safer. “There’s nowhere safer to be during a hurricane than Walt Disney World” is a platitude people use to reassure others who have no other choice but to be stuck at Walt Disney World during a storm. Or what people tell themselves to justify not cancelling.
A few years ago, the circumstances were similar with Hurricane Dorian while we lived in Florida. That storm reached Category 5 status, and was the strongest hurricane in modern records to make landfall in the Bahamas. While portions of Central Florida were in the cone of uncertainty, models didn’t call for it to make landfall in Florida–and it didn’t.
Despite that, Walt Disney World’s parks closed at 3 pm on the day that Dorian worst impacted Florida. It was mostly uneventful–lots of rain and wind, but I don’t recall anything else. What I do recall were deluge of disruptions, and the delightfully ‘dead’ MNSSHP nights that we attended. Due to cancellations, crowds were low both before and after Dorian.
We were in Florida for several other tropical storms and potential hurricanes over the course of the ~5 years we lived in the state. Dorian was forecast to be the worst of these–even though it turned out to mostly miss us–but none of them were smooth sailing. The unpredictability and fear of the unknown was always there, and had us worried. Perhaps it would’ve changed eventually, but we never got “used” to hurricanes. Days like these were always unsettling. I cannot imagine now that we’re parents and have to make decisions about safety on behalf of someone else.
We never booked rooms at Walt Disney World as locals, but honestly, I would strongly consider it for Hurricane Milton. (Homes in Central Florida are built for hurricanes, but I’d still take construction standards of Walt Disney World resorts over single-family homes quickly constructed in subdivisions.)
This already looks worse than anything we experienced in Florida–and that includes Hurricane Irma. Even though it’s forecast to weaken as it approaches Tampa, the Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds approaching from the west and having a projected path right through Orlando is more concerning than the storms we experienced.
How Hurricane Milton will play out remains to be seen. The best case outcome is the the storm weakening significantly once it makes landfall, in which case, the biggest effect on Walt Disney World trips would be several days of torrential rains and heavy winds at Walt Disney World, which would mean that the parks are only closed Wednesday. The worst case outcome is unknown–we’ve never seen a storm quite like Milton in Central Florida, but 2+ days of park closures seems entirely possible.
It seems that whenever there’s a hurricane forecast to impact Walt Disney World, it’s met with a lot of positive wishful thinking and people touting the best case scenario outcomes. This is probably a mix of reassurances to those who are freaked out, and naivety about the potential dangers of hurricanes. We’re not here to fear-monger, but we’re also not here to offer rosy platitudes about the magic of Disney or safety. Whether to cancel or reschedule is obviously your call, but traveling to Florida when a hurricane is forecast is a decision you should not make lightly.
The best we can really offer is what we have done, regret not doing, and would do if we scheduled to be taking a trip during Hurricane Milton. If we were scheduled to travel to Florida this week, we’d either cancel completely or delay our arrival until Friday at the earliest. If we were already there for a trip, we’d be trying to get a flight out by Tuesday. If we had no other choice but to ride it out at Walt Disney World, we’d book or move to a hotel with interior hallways and access to a food court and other facilities (BoardWalk was not a great option because it’s dining is all outdoors from the main lobby–but they converted conference rooms to food facilities.)
Regardless of what decision you make, we hope everyone stays safe and that the worst of the forecast does not come to fruition. Everyone in Florida, whether local or tourist, is in our thoughts. Please take Hurricane Milton seriously and prepare for the storm to the greatest extent possible. Remember, you can always reschedule a vacation–this is going to be a deadly hurricane on the coast and one that’ll impact Central Florida to a far greater extent than normal.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Are you currently at Walt Disney World or Central Florida? What’s your plan for Hurricane Milton? Have you visited during past hurricanes? Any additional info, thoughts, or first-hand experiences to share about riding out a hurricane at Walt Disney World? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
