One of the busiest times of the year at Walt Disney World is fall break. Federal holidays and school recesses cause crowd levels to spike, which catches many visitors by surprise. October 2024 will be a bit different than normal, but we’re still anticipating weeks with high wait times in Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Animal Kingdom, and Hollywood Studios–the busiest dates since Easter!
Technically, fall break “season” has already started. Some school districts do multiple ‘student holidays’ or ‘professional development days’ for teachers in late September and October. Other colleges, universities, and K-12 school systems take longer breaks deeper into the month of October.
It’s not just fall breaks that contribute to congestion, either; as covered in our 2024 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars, there are a variety of reasons why the next few months contain some of the busiest dates of the entire year. With that said, this year is definitely going to be different–as emphasized in the opening–making the already unpredictable fall break crowds even less predictable than normal…
The big wildcard this year is the aftermath of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. This post was originally slated to be published in late September, but the arrival of Helene caused us to postpone, wanting to see the potential impact it had. Sadly, it was a significant one. Not for Central Florida, but that is not the only–or even primary–consideration since Walt Disney World is a tourist destination fueled by out-of-state visitors.
It was again slated to be posted over the weekend, but then Hurricane Milton entered the chat. This storm system did go through Orlando and even resulted in the closure of Walt Disney World. Thankfully, Milton was not as catastrophic as anticipated. But again, that’s not the only relevant consideration in how this storm has or will impact crowds. In both cases, it’s the cascading effects.
Normally, the weekend of Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day is among the worst of the fall break season. That will not be the case this year, due to families from out-of-state cancelling their vacations and as a result of limited park reservations for Annual Passholders as Walt Disney World works to scale back up and recover post-storm.
It’s our expectation that this weekend will be very busy by post-storm standards (which are typically quite slow), but attendance will be down dramatically by holiday weekend standards. There will likely be a massive year-over-year decrease in wait times as a result of cancelled trips, travel disruptions, and potential attendance constraints for Annual Passholders.
There’s also the reality that students throughout Florida and the rest of the South have now dealt with two storms in under a month. The normal post-storm dynamic is that locals are eager to get out of the house and Walt Disney World sees a spike in visitation among Annual Passholders and other Floridians. And that could happen this weekend to some extent–but it won’t be enough to offset the cancellations.
Equally significant is the cumulative effect of school closures in some major districts for successive storms. Our fall break crowd forecasts are typically driven by a mixture of school calendars from Southern states as well as “feeder” districts in the Midwest and Northeast. Unfortunately, many families from the latter will have cancelled their trips and others from the former could lose their fall breaks due to storm makeup days. So the published district calendars are almost useless for forecasting October 2024 crowds.
The good news is that we do have kernels of information to make semi-informed (albeit sometimes outdated) predictions. For starters, Walt Disney World has extended park hours throughout October 2024. These extensions signal that the internal attendance forecast is elevated for at least part of the month, and this practice of extending hours happens with consistency whenever crowd levels are expected to be above-average to heavy.
On dates that are forecast to be busiest, Magic Kingdom is closing at 11 pm on nights when it’s not hosting Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and is opening at 8 am on most days–party or not. Animal Kingdom is opening at 8 am and staying open until 7 pm on many nights. Unfortunately, both EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios are retaining their 9 am to 9 pm hours for now.
In looking solely at the consistently longest park hours extensions, Walt Disney World expects October 11 to October 21, 2024 to be the peak of fall break season in the parks. Keep in mind that these extended hours first started hitting the calendar several weeks ago–this weekend was extended in late September, before even Hurricane Helene was forecast. And when it comes to adding hours, Walt Disney World generally has a “no takebacks” philosophy, meaning that once hours are extended, they aren’t undone–even if no longer “needed.”
Walt Disney World’s park hours extensions are consistent with our predictions, also made long before the hurricanes. We had flagged October 11-19, 2024 as being one of the the 10 worst ‘weeks’ of the year. Literally–see our list of the 10 Best and 10 Worst Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World in 2024 to 2026.
In the commentary to that list, we noted that last year’s fall break was “only” the #9 worst week of the year and there was a decent chance it would fall of the list entirely in 2024. We noted that some potential visitors might be spooked away by storm season or still-hot weather. As it turns out, that was accurate–although “spooked by storm season” has turned out to be a mild understatement!
Nevertheless, we pointed out that these dates would usher in the end of the off-season, and start of a 3-month stretch of elevated crowds–minus a few major lulls. That part is accurate, even after the hurricanes. Walt Disney World is coming off its slowest 8-week stretch (soon to be 9-week stretch thanks to Milton), and the arrival of fall break will absolutely change that. This weekend and coming week will not be among the worst 10 of the year–and probably not even the worst 20–due to hurricane disruptions. It’ll nevertheless be busy enough to end off-season–this is a turning point for Walt Disney World crowds.
As for which week of fall break will likely be the busiest, it’s difficult to say. Far more major school districts have earlier student recesses than have later ones. Even with Milton-induced cancellations, there’s still a strong possibility that October 11-19, 2024 ends up being worse than October 20-27, 2024.
In fact, I’d be inclined to bet that’s the case. The difference is that, previously, our expectation was that fall break crowds would peak during the earlier half of that Oct. 11-19 range, and start dying down by the second weekend. Post-Milton, our prediction is that attendance climbs throughout those dates.
The reason for this is simple: each day removed from Milton, its impacts will be less pronounced. Out of state tourists arriving on Saturday will be less likely to cancel than those scheduled to arrive Friday, those arriving Sunday less likely to cancel than those coming Saturday, and so forth.
Tourists with trips scheduled starting October 15 probably will not be cancelling in any meaningful numbers–crowds will play out as predicted weeks or months ago. Given this, our revised prediction is that the worst fall break crowds occur October 14-21, 2024 at Walt Disney World. That’s a fairly safe bet post-storm, and it also encompasses two long weekends and two Mondays–typically the busiest day of the week at Walt Disney World.
For reference, let’s take a look at last year’s crowd levels (courtesy of thrill-data.com). Average wait times peaked on October 16, jumping to 50 minutes for a 9/10 crowd level. Notably, that was the Monday after Columbus Day, which fell earlier last year. Just two weeks prior was still the off-season.
Crowd levels gradually fell throughout the week, and by October 22, there was once again another lull. Despite October 16 being the busiest single day, the peak full week was actually October 9-15, 2023 (crowd level 8/10 and average of 42 minutes). By contrast, October 16-22 had a crowd level of 6/10 for an average of 38 minutes. Both of these weeks were considerably slower than 2022, but that was the height of pent-up demand.
In both of the last two years, crowd levels drop by the last full week of October and stay low-to-moderate until Veterans Day. Contrary to popular belief, there is not a spike for Halloween. There is a bit of a bump–albeit more in “feels like” crowds than wait times–for the runDisney Wine & Dine Half Marathon, though.
If annual patterns continue to play out, Fall Break 2024 would be slower than last year–that’s the overarching trend. That almost certainly would’ve been true even before Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Now it’s a done deal. Just keep in mind that “slower than last year” is a relative term and not an absolute one. Relative to the last two months, the next couple of weeks will absolutely be busy–even in the aftermath of the storms.
It’s highly unlikely that this year’s fall break peak crowd levels surpass Easter. That was highly unlikely even before the hurricanes, and was/is simply a matter of trends observed over the last couple of years. We don’t like using the word “impossible,” but it’s much closer to that than just “highly unlikely” at this point. The hurricanes sealed the deal on that.
Nevertheless, one of the next two weeks probably will be the busiest week since Spring Break. Again, the impact of the hurricanes is a real wildcard. But pretty much every single week since Easter has underperformed in 2024. The months of May through September have all been down year-over-year, as has almost every single week within that stretch.
For fall break to be the busiest week since spring break, all it would need to do is have an average wait time of 36 minutes or higher. That’s only a 5/10 crowd level. Only a couple of weeks since April have averaged 35-minute crowds; most have struggled just to hit the 30-minute mark. The comps are pretty favorable and easy for fall break to beat–it all comes down to the extent of hurricane cancellations.
Next, let’s talk wildcards. As discussed in Best & Worst Days to Do All Parks at Walt Disney World in 2024 (and countless other posts), day of week trends really matter this time of year. Choose the “correct” parks on the best days of the week, and you’re likely to have a pleasant experience even in moderate to above average crowds.
Choose the “wrong” parks on the worst days of the week, and you might be surprised by how high wait times are even during weeks with 1/10 or 2/10 crowd levels. Remember, these are averages across all of Walt Disney World–there is a ton of day-to-day inconsistency at the park level.
Another interesting wildcard that could depress crowds further is the lack of a Florida resident ticket deal. One just wrapped up at the end of September, resulting in a slight spike then. The difference is that, last year, another Floridian ticket deal (for weekdays only) almost immediately launched for October through December. That has not happened in 2024 (yet?).
Another variable is that Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party is sold out for every single date. That alone is pretty unremarkable, as the same thing has happened for the last few years. What’s more noteworthy is that October 2024 dates sold out even faster than last year (or the year before) despite pent-up demand otherwise being exhausted and average ticket prices being higher.
Now let’s talk beating the crowds. First, remember how we discussed extended park hours at the top of the post? Well, those added hours are incredibly advantageous–especially the earlier opening times since most travelers don’t want to do the early wake-up call on vacation.
Choosing the optimal days to do each par, especially DHS and Magic Kingdom–and then taking advantage of Early Entry at both parks–is huge. Do not underestimate Early Entry, or visiting those parks on days that are likely to be less crowded. It’s a similar story with Disney’s Hollywood Studios or Animal Kingdom in the evenings.
By simply arriving early or staying late at every park, you can beat the worst of the midday crowds. (Of course, that’s “simple” in theory but more difficult in practice, especially if you have small children. That’s a big reason why wait times are lower first thing in the morning and later in the evenings.) Beyond that, be sure to also check out our Walt Disney World Itineraries for plans of attack.
It’s entirely possible to beat bad crowds by utilizing Lightning Lane Multi-Pass, Early Entry, Extended Evening Hours, rope drop, etc. We cover the best & worst approach for each park in Best Time-Saving Strategies for Walt Disney World. If you’re only going to read one planning post, make it that.
There are great ways to beat the crowds–even on busy days–without buying Lightning Lane Multi-Pass (LLMP) or Single Pass (LLSP). We don’t buy line-skipping services most of the time, and find we’re able to do just fine so long as we’re up early or out late–ideally both!
Speaking of which, we have a comprehensive Guide to Lightning Lanes at Walt Disney World for those who want to thoroughly master the latest generation of paid FastPass. Weeks like this, it’s definitely a good option for Magic Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, and EPCOT. (We seldom recommend LLMP at Animal Kingdom, and that remains true during fall break, too.)
Overall, that’s about what you can expect to experience during Fall Break 2024 at Walt Disney World. Expect elevated ‘feels like’ crowds starting pretty much right now, even in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton. How things unfold over the course of the next two weeks really depends upon how many Northeast and Midwest tourists got spooked into cancelling their trips plus how many Southern states lost their long weekends for hurricane makeup days.
Neither of those things we can predict with any degree of confidence. My personal expectation is that next Monday, October 14, is the start of busier days that continues throughout the following week, with the likelihood of a later peak than originally expected. Even with Columbus Day falling later this year, the peak will also probably happen later.
We aren’t completely confident that the last week-plus of October will have the same degree of slowdown as last year. There are school districts with late fall breaks, and that coupled with tourists who postponed trips–rather than cancelling completely–could move the needle. There are also a couple of huge conventions in the last two weeks that could really throw a monkey wrench into crowds. Regardless, there should be a brief slowdown in late October and early November before the holiday season kicks into high gear.
In the end, we wouldn’t necessarily avoid fall break ‘season’ if you have a school-aged child and have no better options outside of the big holiday breaks in the final quarter of the year. All of those (Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s) are much worse than fall break in a normal year without any hurricanes artificially depressing crowds.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you visited Walt Disney World during fall break in the past? What did you think of the crowds? Are you visiting this year? Did you cancel your fall break trip due to Hurricane Milton? If you’re in a southern school district, have you lost fall break due to hurricane makeup? Anything else we missed that could impact crowds in October 2024? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our Fall Break 2024 Crowd Forecast for Walt Disney World? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
