According to IATA (International Air Transport Association), airlines are projected to double the number of passengers in the next 20 years, with most of the growth expected from Asia.
This escalating trend is a cause for immediate concern among environmentalists. IATA’s projection that the number of air passengers will double by 2043, reaching a staggering 8.6 billion, is a stark reminder of the environmental impact of air travel. This means an average annual growth rate of air traffic of 3.6% over the next 20 years, a figure that cannot be ignored.
A Very Complex Decarbonization
Over the past 20 years, air traffic growth has varied across different regions of the world. The Asia-Pacific region has experienced significant growth, particularly in India (6.9%), Thailand and Vietnam (6.4%), and China (5.8%). The Middle East and Africa align with the average, while North America (+1.7%) and Europe (+2%) represent more mature markets.
Latin America and the Caribbean region are expected to experience slightly more sustained growth (+2.9%).
According to IATA, the number of air passengers is expected to reach a record high of 4.96 billion in 2024, compared to 4.54 billion in 2019.
Despite these daunting forecasts, the aviation sector is not without hope. IATA’s member airlines have made a bold commitment to achieve ‘zero’ carbon emissions by 2050. This ambitious goal will necessitate using sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and significant technological investments, but it is a significant step towards a more sustainable future.
Amsterdam Rejected the Air Traffic Growth
Amsterdam is one of the few cities that has taken proactive steps to control air traffic growth. Though currently suspended, their efforts are a testament to the local initiatives addressing the environmental impact of air travel.
However, the Dutch government suspended its plan to limit the number of flights at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport from 2023 to the end of 2024. In a recent statement, IATA responded to a ruling by the Dutch Supreme Court, ‘which upheld the initial decision of the Amsterdam District Court that the experimental regulation to reduce capacity at Schiphol was not in line with the balanced approach to noise management.’ This approach aims to find a compromise between the economic benefits of air traffic and the negative impact of noise on local communities.
